Fall 2004
Fear Factor
page
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Look at the Human Genome Project. We now have
a list of our genes; we have libraries of their common variants;
we have micro-array technology to screen for these variants at
ever lower prices. And we are developing the bioinformatics capabilities
to make sense of the tsunami of information that is about to sweep
over us.
The greatest immediate consequences of genomics,
then, will flow from widespread and inexpensive personal genetic
testing that will arrive over the next five to 15 years. One near-term
result of such testing will be a dramatic shift toward preventive
medicine. This will not only mean nutritional and lifestyle interventions,
which are notoriously hard to adhere to, but long-term pharmaceutical
interventions. This shift will be a huge scientific, clinical
and political challenge. Who will pay for such measures? How will
people make informed decisions about what to do?
Pharmacogenetics, the tailoring of drugs to
our individual genetic constitutions and biochemistries, is another
likely development. It will no doubt bring more and better drugs,
but they won’t be cheaper, and it is not clear how we will
test them. The current regulatory environment simply is not equipped
to test personalized preventive interventions. One thing we can
count on, though, is that in the decades ahead we will spend more
of our Gross Domestic Product on health care and more of our health-care
dollars on drugs.
Our ideas of political correctness also will
be challenged. As we uncover the constellations of genes that
help to shape us, we will find many differences among individuals
and among populations. We’ll have to come to grips with
the fact that these differences often have biological underpinnings.
Some worry that we are not up to this task and fear that the coming
storm of knowledge will tear apart the human family. But why should
it? Many societies already deal with such differences quite well
within the egalitarian framework we so value.
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