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Winter 2004
Stemming the Nuclear Tide
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Iran’s nuclear history dates back to the days of the Shah.
In the early 1970s, Iran acquired its first nuclear reactor —
from the U.S. By the time the Shah fell in 1979, Iran had six
power reactors under contract, two of which were more than halfway
completed. With the change of regime, work on those projects came
to a halt. Later, with help from Russia, Iran began to rebuild
its nuclear-power program. Pakistan’s assistance accelerated
Iran’s uranium-enrichment program — a program that
could eventually serve the dual aims of producing low-enriched
uranium fuel for power reactors and highly enriched uranium for
bombs.
In recent months, negotiations between Iran and
three European countries (France, Germany and the United Kingdom)
have focused on freezing Iran’s enrichment program in return
for economic aid. This effort merits our support, for here too,
diplomacy is the least-bad available option. The Iranian leadership,
like North Korea’s, is very much aware of the U.S. doctrine
of preemption, of Iran’s assignment to the “Axis of
Evil” and of America’s demonstrated willingness to
use military force to accomplish regime change. A deal that meets
our needs, and theirs, probably can be struck.
As for al-Qaeda and other terrorist groups, the
most effective means for preventing their acquisition of nuclear
weapons is to secure the nuclear weapons, nuclear materials and
nuclear expertise in Russia, other former states of the Soviet
Union and elsewhere, and to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons
and weapons-related technologies to additional countries, especially
countries that might give or sell them to terrorist organizations.
Difficult as it may appear to be, stemming the
spread of nuclear weapons is a challenge far less formidable than
would be that of dealing with a world of scores of nuclear powers,
possibly including one or more terrorist organizations. In the
nuclear world, as in many others, an old adage applies: An ounce
of prevention is worth a pound of cure.
UCLA Chancellor Albert
Carnesale has represented the United States in high-level
negotiations on defense and energy issues, including SALT I with
the Soviet Union. He holds a Ph.D. in nuclear engineering and
is a fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences and a
member of the Council on Foreign Relations.
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