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Winter 2004
Cyber Vision
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this intimate and pervasive interaction with our surroundings
will eventually create a world of mass customization. Already,
young consumers tend to love their mobile phones more than their
newspapers (and their video games more than television), so the
day isn’t far off when businesses, armed with a storehouse
of information on consumer preferences, will target customers
directly in real-time, in homes, offices and shopping malls. Imagine
a morning, for example, when you’re stepping into the shower
and your local bakery calls to tell you that your favorite French
rolls, hot out of the oven, can be at your door within minutes.
As with any other technology, it’s
impossible to predict how the Internet will actually serve consumers
in the future, given that e-mail, instant messaging and the World
Wide Web were themselves complete surprises. Which is why, as
Kleinrock concedes, “it’s much easier to predict infrastructure.”
Many such predictions are based on the almost surreal ability
of computers to do more and more computing in ever-smaller spaces
over increasing bandwidths, using ever-lower power, thereby validating
Intel co-founder Gordon Moore’s 1965 prediction, known as
Moore’s Law, that the computer power available on a single
chip doubles every 18 to 24 months.
So if the core of the Internet is rife with increased
capacity, where do the big challenges lie? At the network’s
edges, says Vinton Cerf M.S. ’70, Ph.D. ’72, one of
the Internet’s pioneering architects who is senior vice
president of technology strategy for the telecommunications giant
MCI. At a time when cable companies and their fiber-optics rivals
are vying to control the flow of information to U.S. households,
the hottest tech issue is broadband. In some parts of the world,
such as South Korea and Japan, “where homes are essentially
high-density dwellings, there is an increase in broadband access
because it’s easier to outfit an apartment building with
high-speed fiber than it is to string fiber to separate family
homes,” says Cerf. In contrast, because the United States
has relatively more individual family homes, delivering wireless
broadband connection is a daunting exercise.
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